Harris vs. Trump: It’s still close, but final polls are breaking in one direction | Who’s winning?

The stars appear to be aligning for Vice President Kamala Harris to win Tuesday’s presidential election over ex-president Donald Trump, who has blown a huge summer lead while melting down in the final days by alienating women, Latinos and other voting blocs.
In the final New York Times/Siena College poll, Harris has small but consistent leads in the swing states, including places where Trump expected to win, like North Carolina and Georgia. According to the Times, Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied, but Harris has been polling ahead in those states in other surveys.
” … if the race did shift toward Ms. Harris, it wouldn’t be hard to explain. The news over the last two weeks hasn’t been great for Mr. Trump, from his former chief of staff John Kelly saying he meets the definition of a fascist to a speaker at Mr. Trump’s event at Madison Square Garden calling Puerto Rico an ‘island of garbage,’” the Times reported.
On Saturday, an earthquake shook the Trump campaign when the Des Moines Register’s final poll showed Harris with a three-point lead, 47-44% — in Iowa, a deeply red state. The Times began surveying voters on Oct. 24, three days before Trump’s hate-filled rally at Madison Square Garden. The Des Moines Register Poll was taken entirely after that event.
Trump won Iowa comfortably in 2016 and 2020. Even a slim Trump win in Iowa likely portends disaster in other places on the electoral map.
Key takeaways from the Des Moines Register poll: Independent women back Harris by a 28-point margin, 57% to 29%; women 65 and over support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%; and while 97% of Democrats support Harris, only 89% of Republicans support Trump.
With women dominating the early voting nationwide, that appears to be a good sign for Harris, who has been campaigning on restoring reproductive rights.
Also, experts agree that the Democrats have the better get-out-the-vote infrastructure.
Despite all of the hand-wringing over Harris’ allegedly leaky support from Black and Hispanic communities, she led Black voters, 84 percent to 11 percent, up from 80-14 in the last wave of Times/Siena state polls. She led among Hispanic voters, 56-35, up from 55-41.
In addition, late-breaking voters have been swinging toward Harris, 55-44%.
Here’s a look at the swing states in the Times poll:
Nevada: Harris +3 (49-46)
North Carolina: Harris +2 (48-46)
Wisconsin: Harris +2 (49-47)
Georgia: Harris +1 (48-47)
Pennsylvania: Tie (48-48)
Michigan: Tie (47-47)
Arizona: Trump +4 (49-45)
ABC News also published its final poll on Sunday morning, and reported a relatively stable race, leaning toward Harris:
Harris has 49% support among likely voters in this final-weekend ABC News/Ipsos poll, Trump 46%. Reflecting the country’s locked-in polarization, support for these candidates hasn’t changed significantly since Harris stepped in to replace Joe Biden last summer.
Harris was +2 in early October, +4 (a slight edge) last week and is +3 in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos. That scant 3-point difference with Trump matches the average Democratic-Republican gap in the last eight presidential elections, of which Democrats won the popular vote in seven. Regardless, the result leaves a wide-open field for the vagaries of the Electoral College.
Former GOP campaign strategist Matthew Dowd went deeper: “Latest ABC News poll has Harris up nationally +3, and even better are the internals. Harris is only losing white women by 4, a group Biden lost by 11 in 2020. And Harris is only losing white men by 11, a group Biden lost by 23 in 2020.”
Dowd posed this question to confident Trump supporters: “A question for all the MAGA Einsteins who are still predicting Trump landslide: If he is so far ahead then why is he [down] 3 in Iowa, only up 5 in Kansas, only up 3 in Ohio, and down 12 in Nebraska 2?”